Background and Objectives of the Decision
On February 10, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports to the United States, based on Section 232, which justifies these measures on national security grounds. The decision aims to protect domestic industry and increase US production, but it threatens to have major repercussions for the global construction sector, which relies on these materials to build buildings and infrastructure.
Direct Impact on the US Construction Sector
- Rising Project Costs:
- Steel costs account for 10-15% of total construction costs in the United States. With the imposition of tariffs, steel prices are expected to rise by 20-30%, which will increase the cost of residential projects by 3-5%, and commercial projects by 5-10%, especially in high-rise buildings that rely on steel structures.
- The automotive industry, which uses steel in manufacturing, may see a 12% increase in costs, according to a previous experience with tariffs in 2018.
- Slowdown in growth:
- The American Association of Contractors (AGC) warned that rising costs could lead to the postponement or cancellation of projects worth billions of dollars, threatening 4% of US GDP linked to the construction sector.
Global Implications: Supply Chains and Prices
- Global Price Rise:
- The United States is the second largest importer of steel in the world, so imposing tariffs could raise steel prices in Europe by 10-15%, and in Asia by 5-10%.
- Canada (the largest source of steel to the United States at 23%) and Mexico (12%) will be directly affected, which may prompt them to impose retaliatory tariffs on American exports, such as auto parts or lumber.
- Disruption of supply chains:
- 80% of American aluminum consumption depends on imports, especially from Canada (58%). Any disruption to these chains could delay global construction projects, such as bridges and airports.
International reactions and future possibilities
- Canada and Mexico: announced their intention to impose retaliatory tariffs of 25% on American goods, such as pork and agricultural products, which could cost American companies billions of dollars in losses.
- China: responded by raising tariffs on American coal imports (15%) and liquefied natural gas (10%), which could complicate the import of raw materials for the steel industry.
- EU: Warns of possible similar tariffs, which could spark a trade war that threatens 20% of global steel-related industrial output.
Advice for Engineers and Contractors
- Reassess Budgets:
- Consider a 5-10% increase in material costs when planning future projects.
- Explore Alternatives:
- Consider using materials such as Glass Fiber Reinforced Concrete or Recycled Aluminum, which may be less affected by tariffs.
- Negotiate with Suppliers:
- Try to secure long-term contracts at fixed prices to avoid sudden price fluctuations.
- Monitor Political Developments:
- Follow negotiations between the United States and Canada/Mexico, as exemptions for some materials may be announced.
Economic Forecast
- According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, middle-income American households could lose between **$1,700 and *$3,900* annually due to rising prices.
- The cost of building an average home in the United States is expected to rise by $8,000, according to Bloomberg analysis.
Conclusion
Trump’s tariffs are not just a local decision; they are a shock to a global economy that relies on a complex web of supply chains. While some U.S. steelmakers may benefit, the costs to the construction sector and consumers portend a period of inflation and instability. Engineers and architects must adopt flexible strategies, such as diversifying supply sources and adopting innovative construction techniques, to overcome these challenges.
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