S&P Global: Credit Conditions Remain Supportive for GCC Real Estate in 2026
S&P Global confirmed that credit and financing conditions remain supportive for real estate companies across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), with the UAE, particularly Dubai and Abu Dhabi, leading the region in terms of demand resilience and strong economic fundamentals, according to its 2026 Real Estate Sector Credit Outlook.
Improving Access to Debt Markets
The agency noted that during Q4 2025, several rated issuers successfully accessed debt markets through hybrid bonds and sukuk, signaling improved investor appetite and a more stable funding environment for large-scale developments.
UAE Leads Regional Growth
Most GCC economies are expected to maintain solid growth prospects, supported by government spending and infrastructure investment, despite geopolitical risks and softer oil prices. The UAE and Saudi Arabia remain at the forefront, with real GDP growth of 4.1% in 2025, and forecasts of 4.7% for the UAE and 4% for Saudi Arabia in 2026.
Retail and Office Segments
Demand for commercial real estate in the UAE remains resilient, particularly in luxury retail and major destinations in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, supported by strong tourism and high consumer spending. Retail vacancy rates have fallen to their lowest levels since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Limited new supply over 2026–2027 is expected to place upward pressure on rents, influencing architectural planning toward more efficient, mixed-use, and experience-driven developments.
Mega Projects Shaping the Urban Landscape
The report highlighted the role of mega projects such as the Saadiyat Cultural District, Disney Park in Abu Dhabi, and the Wynn integrated resort in Ras Al Khaimah, in boosting tourism revenues and supporting residential demand, with direct implications for architectural scale and design ambition.
Architectural Outlook
Looking ahead, the market points toward increased demand for high-quality architecture, integrated urban planning, and multi-functional developments. For architects, the UAE continues to offer a mature environment to develop sustainable, smart, and adaptable design models aligned with demographic growth and the region’s evolving non-oil economy through 2026 and 2027.
✦ ArchUp Editorial Insight
S&P Global’s 2026 credit outlook highlights the GCC, particularly the UAE, as a resilient Contemporary Urban Market, where strong economic fundamentals and supportive financing conditions underpin real estate growth. Access to hybrid bonds and sukuk has stabilized funding for large-scale developments, enabling mega projects to shape the Urban Fabric while driving tourism, residential demand, and commercial vitality. However, constrained new supply and rising rents raise critical questions about Contextual Relevance, particularly regarding the integration of mixed-use, experience-driven developments with local community needs. Yet, sustained investor confidence and ongoing government-led infrastructure projects signal an environment conducive to Architectural Ambition, allowing architects to advance high-quality, sustainable, and adaptable urban designs that reinforce the UAE’s transition toward a diversified, knowledge-based economy.
